【真题在线看】2018 ICM问题D：没油了，仍按 E 行驶（电动，不是空的）

最终，禁令生效后，需要在适当的地点设立足够数量的汽车充电站，以便人们可以使用汽车进行日常工作，以及偶尔进行长途旅行。然而，从汽油和柴油汽车向电动汽车的转变并不简单，不可能一蹴而就。在幻想世界中，我们有一天醒来时会发现每辆汽油车都被电动汽车取代，每个加油站都被充电站取代。在现实中，资源有限，消费者需要时间才能完成转换。事实上，充电站的位置和便利性至关重要，因为早期采用者和最终的主流消费者都会自愿转换（http://www.govtech.com/fs/Building-Out-Electric-Vehicle-Infrastructure-Where-Are-the-Best-Locations-for-Charging-Stations.html）。

当各国规划这一转型时，他们需要考虑最终的充电站网络（充电站数量、充电站位置、充电站充电器数量以及农村、郊区和城市地区需求的差异），以及充电站网络随时间的增长和演变。例如，当电动汽车占所有汽车的 10%、30%、50% 和 90% 时，充电站网络应该是什么样子？

当各国寻求制定促进电动汽车转型的政策时，他们需要设计一个最适合各自国家的计划。在开始之前，他们希望您的团队能够帮助他们确定充电网络的最终架构，以支持全电动汽车的全面采用。此外，他们希望您能确定在他们规划最终禁止或大幅减少汽油和柴油汽车的时间表时至关重要的关键因素。

为了帮助您的团队管理此问题的范围，我们要求您仅关注个人乘用车（即用于乘客的汽车、货车和轻型卡车）。在报告的最后，您可以简要评论您的发现和结论与商用车（包括重型卡车和公共汽车）的相关性。

您的任务如下：

任务 1：探索美国当前和不断增长的特斯拉充电站网络。特斯拉目前提供两种类型的充电站：(1) 目的地充电站，设计用于一次充电数小时甚至整夜充电(https://www.tesla.com/destination-charging)；(2 ) 超级充电站，设计用于长途公路旅行，只需 30 分钟的充电即可提供长达 170 英里的续航里程 ( https://www.tesla.com/supercharger )。这些充电站是许多拥有私人车库或带电车道的特斯拉车主使用的家用充电站的补充。特斯拉是否有望让美国完全转向全电动汽车？如果美国每个人都改用全电动个人乘用车，将需要多少个充电站，以及它们应该如何在城市、郊区和农村地区分布？

任务 2：选择以下国家之一（韩国、爱尔兰或乌拉圭）。

2a.如果您的国家可以立即将所有个人乘用车升级为全电动汽车（无需过渡时间），请确定充电站的最佳数量、位置和分布。影响您计划发展的关键因素是什么？

2b.虽然这些国家已经开始安装充电器，但您可以从头开始。提出一项提案，将您所选国家的充电网络从零充电器发展为完整的电动汽车系统。您建议该国如何投资充电器？该国应该先建造所有城市的充电器，还是所有农村的充电器，还是两者兼而有之？您会先建造充电器并希望人们购买汽车，还是会根据汽车购买情况建造充电器？影响您提议的充电站计划的关键因素是什么？

2c.根据您的发展计划，您建议贵国全面发展电动汽车的时间表是什么？首先，您可能希望考虑一下，在您选择的国家/地区的道路上，电动汽车占比需要多长时间才能达到 10%、30%、50% 或 100%。影响您提出的增长计划时间表的关键因素是什么？

任务 3：现在考虑地理、人口密度分布和财富分布差异很大的国家，例如澳大利亚、中国、印度尼西亚、沙特阿拉伯和新加坡。您提出的发展和改进充电器网络的计划是否仍然适用于这些国家？哪些关键因素促使选择不同的网络发展方法？讨论创建分类系统的可行性，该系统将帮助一个国家确定他们应该遵循的一般增长模式，以便他们成功地从汽油和柴油汽车转向全电动汽车。

任务 4：技术世界不断变化，并影响着交通选择，例如汽车共享和拼车服务、自动驾驶汽车、电动汽车快速电池更换站，甚至飞行汽车和超级高铁。评论这些技术如何影响您对电动汽车使用日益增加的分析。

任务 5：准备一份一页的讲义，供参加国际能源峰会的各国领导人参考。讲义应确定领导人回国时应考虑的关键因素，以制定国家计划，将个人交通工具转向全电动汽车，并设定禁止使用燃气汽车的日期。

您的提交内容应包括：
    ● 一页摘要表，
    ● 一页讲义，
    ● 您的解决方案不超过 20 页，最多 22 页（包括摘要和讲义）。
    ●注意：参考列表和任何附录不计入 22 页的限制，应出现在您完成的解决方案之后。

Eventually, when a ban goes into effect, there needs to be a sufficient number of vehicle charging stations in all the right places so that people can use their vehicles for their daily business, as well as make occasional long-distance trips. The migration from gasoline and diesel cars to electric vehicles, however, is not simple and can鈥檛 happen overnight. In a fantasy world, we would wake up one day with every gas vehicle replaced by an electric one, and every gas station replaced with a charging station. In reality, there are limited resources, and it will take time for consumers to make the switch. In fact, the location and convenience of charging stations is critical as early adopters and eventually mainstream consumers volunteer to switch (http://www.govtech.com/fs/Building-Out-Electric-Vehicle-Infrastructure-Where-Are-the-Best-Locations-for-Charging-Stations.html).

As nations plan this transition, they need to consider the final network of charging stations (the number of stations, where they will be located, the number of chargers at the stations, and the differences in the needs of rural areas, suburban areas, and urban areas), as well as the growth and evolution of the network of charging stations over time. For example, what should the network look like when electric vehicles represent 10% of all cars, 30% of all cars, 50% of all cars, and 90% of all cars?

As nations seek to develop policies that promote the migration towards electric vehicles, they will need to design a plan that works best for their individual country. Before they can begin, they would like your team鈥檚 help in determining the final architecture of the charging network to support the full adoption of all-electric vehicles. Additionally, they would like you to identify the key factors that will be important as they plan their timeline for an eventual ban or dramatic reduction of gasoline and diesel vehicles.

To help your team manage the scope of this problem, we ask that you focus only on personal passenger vehicles (i.e. cars, vans, and light trucks used for passengers). At the end of your report, you may briefly comment on the relevance of your findings and conclusions on commercial vehicles to include heavy trucks and busses.

Your tasks are the following:

Task 1: Explore the current and growing network of Tesla charging stations in the United States. Tesla currently offers two types of charging stations: (1) destination charging designed for charging for several hours at a time or even overnight (https://www.tesla.com/destination-charging); and (2) supercharging designed for longer road trips to provide up to 170 miles of range in as little as 30 minutes of charging (https://www.tesla.com/supercharger). These stations are in addition to at-home charging used by many Tesla owners who have a personal garage or a driveway with power. Is Tesla on track to allow a complete switch to all-electric in the US? If everyone switched to all-electric personal passenger vehicles in the US, how many charging stations would be needed, and how should they be distributed between urban, suburban, and rural areas?

Task 2: Select one of the following nations (South Korea, Ireland, or Uruguay).

2a. Determine the optimal number, placement, and distribution of charging stations if your country could migrate all their personal passenger vehicles to all-electric vehicles instantaneously (no transition time required). What are the key factors that shaped the development of your plan?

2b. While these countries have already started installing chargers, you get to start with a clean slate. Present a proposal for evolving the charging network of your chosen country from zero chargers to a full electric-vehicle system. How do you propose the country invest in chargers? Should the country build all city-based chargers first, or all rural chargers, or a mix of both? Will you build the chargers first and hope people buy the cars, or will you build chargers in response to car purchases? What are the key factors that shaped your proposed charging station plan?

2c. Based on your growth plan, what is the timeline you propose for the full evolution to electric vehicles in your country? To get started, you may wish to consider how long it will take for there to be 10% electric vehicles, 30% electric vehicles, 50% electric vehicles, or 100% electric vehicles on your selected country鈥檚 roads. What are the key factors that shaped your proposed growth plan timeline?

Task 3: Now consider countries with very different geographies, population density distributions, and wealth distributions, such as Australia, China, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore. Would your proposed plan for growing and evolving the network of chargers still apply to each of these countries? What are the key factors that trigger the selection of different approaches to growing the network? Discuss the feasibility of creating a classification system that would help a nation determine the general growth model they should follow in order for them to successfully migrate away from gasoline and diesel vehicles to all electric cars.

Task 4: The technological world continues to change and is impacting transportation options such as car-share and ride-share services, self-driving cars, rapid battery-swap stations for electric cars, and even flying cars and a Hyperloop. Comment on how these technologies might impact your analyses of the increasing use of electric vehicles.

Task 5: Prepare a one-page handout written for the leaders of a wide range of countries who are attending an international energy summit. The handout should identify the key factors the leaders should consider as they return to their home country to develop a national plan to migrate personal transportation towards all-electric cars and set a gas vehicle-ban date.

Your submission should consist of:
    ● One-page Summary Sheet,
    ● One-page handout,
    ● Your solution of no more than 20 pages, for a maximum of 22 pages with your summary and handout.
    ● Note: Reference list and any appendices do not count toward the 22-page limit and should appear after your completed solution.