2018 MCM问题C真题

问题标题：能源生产

年份：2018
学生等级：本科生
来源：MCM

问题

背景：能源生产和使用是任何经济体的重要组成部分。在美国，能源政策的许多方面都分散到州一级。此外，不同州的地理和行业差异也会影响能源的使用和生产。1970 年，美国 12 个西部州成立了西部州际能源协议 (WIEC)，其使命是促进这些州在开发和管理核能技术方面的合作。州际协议是两个或多个州之间达成的合同安排，这些州就特定政策问题达成一致，并采用一套标准或就特定地区或国家事务相互合作。

问题：在美国与墨西哥的边境，有四个州——加利福尼亚州 (CA)、亚利桑那州 (AZ)、新墨西哥州 (NM) 和德克萨斯州 (TX) — — 这些州希望形成一个切实可行的新能源协议，重点是增加使用更清洁的可再生能源。这四个州的州长要求您的团队进行数据分析和建模，以指导他们制定州际能源协议的一系列目标。

附件数据文件“ ProblemCData.xlsx ”在第一个工作表（“seseds”）中提供了这四个州 50 年的 605 个变量数据，以及一些人口统计和经济信息。此数据集中使用的 605 个变量名称在第二个工作表（“msncodes”）中定义。

第一部分：

A.使用提供的数据，为四个州分别创建能源概况。

B.开发一个模型来描述四个州从 1960 年到 2009 年的能源概况变化情况。分析和解释模型结果，以州长容易理解的方式解决四个州对更清洁、可再生能源的使用问题，并帮助他们了解四个州之间的相似之处和差异。在讨论中包括可能影响相似之处和差异的因素（例如地理、行业、人口和气候）。

C.确定四个州中哪一个在 2009 年似乎拥有使用更清洁、可再生能源的“最佳”概况。解释您的标准和选择。

D.根据这些州能源使用的历史演变，以及您对所建立的州概况之间差异的理解，预测每个州在 2025 年和 2050 年的能源概况（如您所定义），前提是各州长办公室没有任何政策变化。

第二部分：

A.根据您对四个州的比较、您对“最佳”概况的标准以及您的预测，确定 2025 年和 2050 年的可再生能源使用目标，并将其作为新的四州能源协议的目标。

B.确定并讨论四个州为实现其能源紧凑目标可能采取的至少三项行动。

第三部分：

准备一份一页的备忘录给州长小组，总结截至 2009 年的各州概况、在没有政策变化的情况下对能源使用情况的预测，以及您建议的能源契约目标。

您的提交内容应包括：

● 一页摘要表，
● 一页备忘录，
● 您的解决方案不超过 20 页，最多 22 页（包括摘要和备忘录）。
●注意：参考列表和任何附录不计入 22 页限制，应出现在您完成的解决方案之后。

题目内容过长，可到文末下载完整版中英文真题

以下是英文版真题

Problem

Background: Energy production and usage are a major portion of any economy. In the United States, many aspects of energy policy are decentralized to the state level. Additionally, the varying geographies and industries of different states affect energy usage and production. In 1970, 12 western states in the U.S. formed the Western Interstate Energy Compact (WIEC), whose mission focused on fostering cooperation between these states for the development and management of nuclear energy technologies. An interstate compact is a contractual arrangement made between two or more states in which these states agree on a specific policy issue and either adopt a set of standards or cooperate with one another on a particular regional or national matter.

Problem: Along the U.S. border with Mexico, there are four states – California (CA), Arizona (AZ), New Mexico (NM), and Texas (TX) 鈥� that wish to form a realistic new energy compact focused on increased usage of cleaner, renewable energy sources. Your team has been asked by the four governors of these states to perform data analysis and modeling to inform their development of a set of goals for their interstate energy compact.
The attached data file "ProblemCData.xlsx" provides in the first worksheet ("seseds") 50 years of data in 605 variables on each of these four states' energy production and consumption, along with some demographic and economic information. The 605 variable names used in this dataset are defined in the second worksheet ("msncodes").

Part I:
A. Using the data provided, create an energy profile for each of the four states.

B. Develop a model to characterize how the energy profile of each of the four states has evolved from 1960 – 2009. Analyze and interpret the results of your model to address the four states鈥� usage of cleaner, renewable energy sources in a way that is easily understood by the governors and helps them to understand the similarities and difference between the four states. Include in your discussion possible influential factors of the similarities and differences (e.g. geography, industry, population, and climate).

C. Determine which of the four states appeared to have the "best" profile for use of cleaner, renewable energy in 2009. Explain your criteria and choice.

D. Based on the historical evolution of energy use in these states, and your understanding of the differences between the state profiles you established, predict the energy profile of each state, as you have defined it, for 2025 and 2050 in the absence of any policy changes by each governor's office.

Part II:
A. Based on your comparison between the four states, your criteria for "best" profile, and your predictions, determine renewable energy usage targets for 2025 and 2050 and state them as goals for this new four-state energy compact.

B. Identify and discuss at least three actions the four states might take to meet their energy compact goals.

Part III:
Prepare a one-page memo to the group of Governors summarizing the state profiles as of 2009, your predictions with regard to energy usage absent any policy changes, and your recommended goals for the energy compact to adopt.

Your submission should consist of:
    ● One-page Summary Sheet,
    ● One-page memo,
    ● Your solution of no more than 20 pages, for a maximum of 22 pages with your summary and memo.
    ● Note: Reference list and any appendices do not count toward the 22-page limit and should appear after your completed solution.

Attachments:
ProblemCData.xlsx Includes two worksheets seseds and msncodes.

References:
State Energy Data System (SEDS) Complete Dataset through 2009 (All 50 states) https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/state-energy-data-system-seds-complete-dataset-through-2009#sec-dates

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