问题标题：气候变化如何影响区域不稳定？
年份：2018
学生等级：本科生
来源：ICM
问题
气候变化的影响已经显现，包括干旱增加、冰川缩小、动物和植物分布范围改变以及海平面上升，这些影响因地区而异。政府间气候变化专门委员会表示，气候变化的净损失成本可能非常巨大。其中许多影响将改变人类的生活方式，并可能导致社会和政府结构的弱化和崩溃。因此，不稳定的政府可能导致国家脆弱。
脆弱国家是指政府无法或选择不向其人民提供基本必需品的国家。就本问题而言，“国家”是指主权国家或国家。脆弱国家会增加一个国家的人口对自然灾害、可耕地减少、天气变化无常和气温升高等气候冲击的影响的脆弱性。发展中国家普遍存在的不可持续的环境实践、移民和资源短缺问题，可能会进一步加剧治理薄弱的国家（Schwartz 和 Randall，2003 年；Theisen、Gleditsch 和 Buhaug，2013 年）。可以说，叙利亚和也门的干旱进一步加剧了本已脆弱的国家。环境压力本身并不一定引发暴力冲突，但有证据表明，当环境压力与治理薄弱和社会分裂相结合时，就会引发暴力冲突。这种融合可能会加剧暴力的恶性循环，通常是沿着潜在的种族和政治分歧（Krakowka、Heimel 和 Galgano，2012 年）。
您的任务如下：
任务 1：开发一个模型来确定一个国家的脆弱性，同时衡量气候变化的影响。你的模型应该确定一个国家是脆弱的、易受影响的还是稳定的。它还应该确定气候变化如何通过直接方式或间接方式增加脆弱性，因为它会影响其他因素和指标。
任务 2：根据脆弱国家指数 ( http://fundforpeace.org/fsi/data/ )确定的十大最脆弱国家之一，并确定气候变化如何增加该国的脆弱性。使用您的模型来说明在没有这些影响的情况下，该国在哪些方面可能不那么脆弱。
任务 3：使用你的模型对另一个不在前 10 名之列的国家进行测量，以了解其脆弱性，并了解气候变化可能以何种方式以及何时使其变得更加脆弱。确定任何明确的指标。你如何定义临界点并预测一个国家何时会达到这个临界点？
任务 4：使用您的模型来展示哪些国家主导的干预措施可以减轻气候变化的风险并防止一个国家成为脆弱国家。解释人类干预的效果并预测该国干预的总成本。
任务 5：你的模型适用于较小的“州”（例如城市）还是较大的“州”（例如大陆）？如果不适用，你会如何修改你的模型？
您的提交内容应包括：
● 一页摘要表，
● 您的解决方案不超过 20 页，最多 21 页（含摘要）。
●注意：参考列表和任何附录不计入 21 页限制，应出现在您完成的解决方案之后。
题目内容过长，可到文末下载完整版中英文真题
以下是英文版真题
| Problem | |||
| The effects of Climate Change, to include increased droughts, shrinking glaciers, changing animal and plant ranges, and sea level rise, are already being realized and vary from region to region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant. Many of these effects will alter the way humans live, and may have the potential to cause the weakening and breakdown of social and governmental structures. Consequently, destabilized governments could result in fragile states.
A fragile state is one where the state government is not able to, or chooses not to, provide the basic essentials to its people. For the purpose of this problem refers to a sovereign state or country. Being a fragile state increases the vulnerability of a country's population to the impact of such climate shocks as natural disasters, decreasing arable land, unpredictable weather, and increasing temperatures. Non-sustainable environmental practices, migration, and resource shortages, which are common in developing states, may further aggravate states with weak governance (Schwartz and Randall, 2003; Theisen, Gleditsch, and Buhaug, 2013). Arguably, drought in both Syria and Yemen further exacerbated already fragile states. Environmental stress alone does not necessarily trigger violent conflict, but evidence suggests that it enables violent conflict when it combines with weak governance and social fragmentation. This confluence can enhance a spiral of violence, typically along latent ethnic and political divisions (Krakowka, Heimel, and Galgano 2012). Your tasks are the following: Task 1: Develop a model that determines a country's fragility and simultaneously measures the impact of climate change. Your model should identify when a state is fragile, vulnerable, or stable. It should also identify how climate change increases fragility through direct means or indirectly as it influences other factors and indicators. Task 2: Select one of the top 10 most fragile states as determined by the Fragile State Index (http://fundforpeace.org/fsi/data/) and determine how climate change may have increased fragility of that country. Use your model to show in what way(s) the state may be less fragile without these effects. Task 3: Use your model on another state not in the top 10 list to measure its fragility, and see in what way and when climate change may push it to become more fragile. Identify any definitive indicators. How do you define a tipping point and predict when a country may reach it? Task 4: Use your model to show which state driven interventions could mitigate the risk of climate change and prevent a country from becoming a fragile state. Explain the effect of human intervention and predict the total cost of intervention for this country. Task 5: Will your model work on smaller "states" (such as cities) or larger "states" (such as continents)? If not, how would you modify your model? Your submission should consist of: |
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