2018 MCM问题B真题

问题标题：有多少种语言？

年份：2018
学生等级：本科生
来源：MCM

问题

背景：目前地球上大约有 6,900 种语言。大约一半的世界人口声称以下十种语言之一（按使用人数最多的顺序）是母语：普通话（包括标准中文）、西班牙语、英语、印地语、阿拉伯语、孟加拉语、葡萄牙语、俄语、旁遮普语和日语。但是，世界上大部分人口也讲第二语言。当考虑某种语言的使用者总数（母语使用者加上第二或第三语言使用者等）时，语言及其顺序与提供的母语列表不同。某种语言的使用者总数可能会随着时间的推移而增加或减少，因为各种影响包括但不限于一个国家政府使用和/或推广的语言、学校使用的语言、社会压力、文化群体的移民和同化以及与其他语言国家的移民和移居。此外，在我们全球化、相互联系的世界中，还有其他因素使地理上相距遥远的语言能够互动。这些因素包括国际商业关系、全球旅游业的增长、电子通信和社交媒体的使用、以及使用技术协助快速简便的语言翻译。

按使用者总数列出的语言列表。
检索自https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_languages_by_total_number_of_speakers，2018年 1 月 17 日。

问题：一家大型跨国服务公司，在美国纽约市和中国上海设有办事处，正在继续扩张，成为真正的国际公司。该公司正在考虑开设更多的国际办事处，并希望每个办事处的员工都能说英语和一种或多种其他语言。该公司的首席运营官聘请了您的团队来调查全球语言趋势和新办事处的地点选择。

第一部分：

A.考虑上述背景段落中描述的影响和因素，以及您的小组可能确定的其他因素。根据预测的趋势以及这些影响和因素中的部分或全部，对各种语言使用者的分布进行建模。B

.使用您的模型预测未来 50 年母语使用者的数量和总语言使用者的数量将发生什么变化。您是否预测当前前十名列表中的任何一种语言（母语使用者或总使用者）将被另一种语言取代？解释一下。C

.鉴于未来 50 年预测的全球人口和人类迁徙模式，这些语言的地理分布是否会在同一时期发生变化？如果会，请描述这种变化。

第二部分：

A.根据第一部分中的模型，假设您的客户公司希望开设六个新的国际办事处，您会将这些办事处设在哪里以及这些办事处将使用哪些语言？您的建议在短期和长期内会有所不同吗？解释您的选择。

B.考虑到全球通信不断变化的性质，为了节省客户公司的资源，您是否会建议该公司开设少于六个国际办事处？请指出您需要哪些其他信息，并描述您将如何分析此选项以向您的客户提供建议。

第三部分：

向服务公司的首席运营官写一份 1-2 页的备忘录，总结您的结果和建议。
注意：在您的分析中，忽略不可预测或影响大、概率低的事件，例如小行星碰撞，这些事件会导致进化趋势随着时间的推移发生灾难性的跳跃，并可能导致所有语言灭绝。

您的提交内容应包括：
● 一页摘要表，
● 两页备忘录，
● 您的解决方案不超过 20 页，最多 23 页（包括摘要和备忘录）。
●注意：参考列表和任何附录不计入 23 页的限制，应出现在您完成的解决方案之后。

题目内容过长，可到文末下载完整版中英文真题

以下是英文版真题

Problem

Background: There are currently about 6,900 languages spoken on Earth. About half the world鈥檚 population claim one of the following ten languages (in order of most speakers) as a native language: Mandarin (incl. Standard Chinese), Spanish, English, Hindi, Arabic, Bengali, Portuguese, Russian, Punjabi, and Japanese. However, much of the world鈥檚 population also speaks a second language. When considering total numbers of speakers of a particular language (native speakers plus second or third, etc. language speakers), the languages and their order change from the native language list provided. The total number of speakers of a language may increase or decrease over time because of a variety of influences to include, but not limited to, the language(s) used and/or promoted by the government in a country, the language(s) used in schools, social pressures, migration and assimilation of cultural groups, and immigration and emigration with countries that speak other languages. Moreover, in our globalized, interconnected world there are additional factors that allow languages that are geographically distant to interact. These factors include international business relations, increased global tourism, the use of electronic communication and social media, and the use of technology to assist in quick and easy language translation.

List of Languages by Total Numbers of Speakers.
Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_languages_by_total_number_of_speakers on January 17, 2018.

Problem: A large multinational service company, with offices in New York City in the United States and Shanghai in China, is continuing to expand to become truly international. This company is investigating opening additional international offices and desires to have the employees of each office speak both in English and one or more additional languages. The Chief Operating Officer of the company has hired your team to investigate trends of global languages and location options for new offices.

Part I:

A. Consider the influences and factors described in the background paragraph above, as well as other factors your group may identify. Based on projected trends, and some or all of these influences and factors, model the distribution of various language speakers over time.

B. Use your model to predict what will happen to the numbers of native speakers and total language speakers in the next 50 years. Do you predict that any of the languages in the current top-ten lists (either native speakers or total speakers) will be replaced by another language? Explain.

C. Given the global population and human migration patterns predicted for the next 50 years, do the geographic distributions of these languages change over this same period of time? If so, describe the change.

Part II:

A. Based on your modeling from Part I, and assuming your client company wants to open six new international offices, where might you locate these offices and what languages would be spoken in the offices? Would your recommendations be different in the short term versus the long term? Explain your choices.

B. Considering the changing nature of global communications, and in an effort to save your client company resources, might you suggest that the company open less than six international offices? Indicate what additional information you would need and describe how you would analyze this option in order to advise your client.

Part III:

Write a 1-2 page memo to the Chief Operating Officer of the service company summarizing your results and recommendations.
Note: In your analysis, ignore unpredictable or high-impact, low probability events such as asteroid collisions that would cause a catastrophic jump in evolutionary trends over time, and possibly render all languages extinct.

Your submission should consist of:
    ● One-page Summary Sheet,
    ● Two-page memo,
    ● Your solution of no more than 20 pages, for a maximum of 23 pages with your summary and memo.
    ● Note: Reference list and any appendices do not count toward the 23-page limit and should appearafter your completed solution.

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